What is the NVP and Why is it So Important?
NVP stands for No Vig Price. This is the price that you need to beat in order for your bet to have a positive expected value. The NVP that you see in the dropping odds alerts is Pinnacle's price after the odds have dropped.
Understanding NVP is critical to successful value betting. Without it, you're flying blind — you might think you're getting value when you're actually not.
What is Vig?
"Vig" (short for vigorish, also called "juice" or "margin") is the bookmaker's built-in profit margin on every bet.
Example: A Fair Coin Flip
For a fair coin flip (50/50 probability), the true odds should be:
- Heads: 2.00
- Tails: 2.00
But a bookmaker needs to make money, so they offer:
- Heads: 1.91
- Tails: 1.91
That difference (~5%) is the vig. It guarantees the bookmaker profits regardless of the outcome.
[ IMAGE: fairodds-vig-explained-diagram.png ]
What is the No Vig Price (NVP)?
The No Vig Price is the "true" odds after removing the bookmaker's margin.
It represents the fair price based on market probability.
In Fair Odds Terminal, the NVP is calculated from Pinnacle's odds because:
- Pinnacle has the lowest margins in the industry (~2-3%)
- Pinnacle accepts sharp action (winning bettors)
- Pinnacle's odds reflect true market consensus
Key insight: The NVP is your benchmark. If a bookmaker offers odds above the NVP, you have a value bet. If they're below, skip it.
How is NVP Calculated?
Step 1: Get Pinnacle's Odds
Let's say Pinnacle offers:
- Team A: 1.85
- Team B: 2.05
Step 2: Calculate Implied Probabilities
Implied Prob (Team A) = 1 / 1.85 = 54.05%
Implied Prob (Team B) = 1 / 2.05 = 48.78%
Total = 102.83%The total exceeds 100% — that extra 2.83% is Pinnacle's margin (vig).
Step 3: Remove the Margin
Using the Power Method (default in Fair Odds Terminal):
True Prob (Team A) = 54.05% / 102.83% = 52.56%
True Prob (Team B) = 48.78% / 102.83% = 47.44%
Total = 100%Step 4: Convert Back to Odds
NVP (Team A) = 1 / 0.5256 = 1.903
NVP (Team B) = 1 / 0.4744 = 2.108Result:
- Team A NVP: 1.903
- Team B NVP: 2.108
[ IMAGE: fairodds-nvp-calculation-step-by-step.png ]
How to Use NVP in Practice
The Golden Rule
If Bookmaker Odds > NVP → Value Bet (place it)
If Bookmaker Odds ≤ NVP → No Value (skip it)
Example 1: Value Bet ✓
| Source | Team A Odds |
|---|---|
| NVP (from Pinnacle) | 1.903 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 |
Analysis: Bet365 (2.05) > NVP (1.903) ✓
EV% = (2.05 / 1.903 - 1) × 100 = 7.7%Result: This is a value bet with 7.7% expected value.
Example 2: No Value ✗
| Source | Team A Odds |
|---|---|
| NVP (from Pinnacle) | 1.903 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 |
Analysis: Bet365 (1.90) < NVP (1.903) ✗
EV% = (1.90 / 1.903 - 1) × 100 = -0.16%Result: This is NOT a value bet. Skip it.
NVP in Fair Odds Terminal
Where to Find NVP
The NVP is displayed in the Dropping Odds table:
The NVP column shows:
- Pinnacle's post-drop price with the vig removed
- The benchmark you must beat for +EV
- Updated in real-time as odds move
NVP in the Odds History Chart
When you click on any row (in DROPS or ALL tab), the Odds History Chart shows:
- Opening NVP — The NVP when the market first opened
- Current NVP — The live NVP based on current odds
- NVP trend over time — See how fair price evolved
- All related sides — Compare home/away, over/under NVP
NVP Calculation Methods
Fair Odds Terminal offers two methods for calculating NVP:
Power Method (Default, Recommended)
Uses all available market sides (2-way or 3-way) to calculate the true probability. This is the most accurate method.
How it works:
- 2-way markets (spreads, totals): Uses both home/away or over/under odds
- 3-way markets (moneyline with draw): Uses home, draw, and away odds
- Removes the margin proportionally across all sides
Best for:
- Most markets where all sides are available
- Main lines with good liquidity
- Serious value betting
Approx 5% Method (Fallback)
When opposite side odds are not available, Fair Odds Terminal estimates NVP using a standard 5% vig assumption.
When it's used:
- Alternate lines where only one side is priced
- Prop markets with missing odds
- Any market where Power Method can't be applied
Important: Approx 5% is less accurate than Power Method. The "Method" column in Fair Odds Terminal shows which method was used for each alert. Prioritize "Power Method" bets for highest accuracy.
Recommendation: Filter for "Power Method" only using the NVP Method filter. This ensures you're seeing the most accurate NVP calculations.
Why NVP Matters for Dropping Odds
When Pinnacle's odds drop, two things happen:
- Sharp money has entered the market — Someone with information bet big
- The NVP changes — The "true" price has shifted
The NVP you see in the alert is Pinnacle's price AFTER the drop, with vig removed.
Critical understanding: The dropping odds alert shows that Pinnacle moved. But the NVP tells you if there's still value at soft bookmakers.
This is why checking NVP is essential:
- A big drop doesn't guarantee value
- Soft bookmakers may have already adjusted
- Only the NVP comparison reveals true +EV
Common Mistakes
Mistake 1: Ignoring NVP
Seeing a "10% drop" and betting immediately without checking if soft bookmaker odds > NVP.
Fix: Always compare current soft odds to NVP before betting.
Mistake 2: Using Old NVP
The market moves constantly. NVP from 5 minutes ago may be outdated.
Fix: Use the current NVP shown in Fair Odds Terminal.
Mistake 3: Betting When Odds = NVP
If bookmaker odds equal NVP, EV% = 0. This is not a value bet.
Fix: Only bet when odds are meaningfully ABOVE NVP.
Summary
NVP (No Vig Price) is:
- The true odds without bookmaker margin
- Your benchmark for identifying value
- Calculated from Pinnacle's post-drop odds
How to use NVP:
- Check the NVP for the side you want to bet
- Compare to the soft bookmaker's current odds
- If soft odds > NVP → Place the bet
- If soft odds ≤ NVP → Skip it
Remember: The NVP is the price you need to beat. Without comparing to NVP, you don't know if you have value.